Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: the Bradley Effect and the 2008 Election

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Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: the Bradley Effect and the 2008 Election

Will Americans vote for a black man for President?  This is a real and important question as I write this, and a question that may last even after the election.  Because after the election, we will either be discussing how Barack Obama was able to win and rise above the rhetoric of race or we will be looking at ourselves and asking why we couldn’t do that sufficiently to elect a well-educated, well-spoken man and not override the 30% estimate of white people that the polls say will not vote for an African American for President of the United States.

New politics provide impetus to review old questions.  The candidacy of Barak Obama, an African American, takes center stage on the issue of whether voters disguise their true intentions when they answer questions posed by pollsters about the effect of race on their choice of political candidates.  The term “Bradley effect” is used to describe behavior where white respondents state that race will not affect their vote and where the outcome of the election demonstrates that the candidate of choice receives far lesser votes than predicted.  This dichotomy between the polling and final results is said to reflect the fact that white voters lie about whether or not they will vote for an African American because they don’t want to appear socially inappropriate.  This “Bradley effect” relates to the topic of race but can apply to other qualities as well.

Every year we honor the memory of Martin Luther King.  It was his dream that the sons of former slaveholders and the sons of former slaves should one day be educated, work, and live together amicably and that the “Negro” would have the same opportunity to succeed in society as any other race.  The potential Presidency of Barak Obama appears to reflect some realization of that dream.  But it also brings up the factor of race on election results.

Many people don’t know how the term “Bradley effect” came about, so for purposes of this article, here’s some background.   In 1982 Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was projected to win the governor’s race in California based upon polling prior to the election.  Instead his white opponent George Deukmejian won.  Seven years later Douglas Wilder, an African American, narrowly won the governorship of Virginia after being projected to win the office handily.  The term “Bradley effect” was used to describe these phenomena.

Recent election results in New Hampshire during the 2008 primaries present a different view, and perhaps a different outcome that shows progress in King’s realization of the dream.  Obama was projected to receive 37% of the vote in the Democratic primary against his rivals, and indeed, although he came in second to Hillary Clinton, he received the projected percentage of vote.  Thus the Bradley effect may no longer be operable in certain states, or under certain conditions, or with certain candidates.  But will that happen nationally.

It has been 40 years since segregation was examined and rejected as national policy.  The legacy of Martin Luther King remains something that all people can identify with, regardless of race.  His message in Washington there in 1963 gave a hope for true brotherhood and the potential of what the national might be able to do.  Obama is part of the realization of that hope, while at the same time his candidacy provokes us to examine our stereotypes and prejudices.  The possibility of turning back the Bradley effect as a historical relic as opposed to a definitive election response makes the “don’t ask, don’t tell” a phrase that will no longer fit any situation because every vote and every person will be shown to participate equally in our culture and fairness will be the banner for diversity and change for the better.

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