Explain what is meant by bullwhip effect and how it could be prevented?

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Explain what is meant by bullwhip effect and how it could be prevented?

An organization will always have ups and downs. It is necessary that the managers of the organization keep track of the market conditions and analyze the changes. They must take decisions on the organization to meet the market demands. Failing to do so may adversely affect the functioning of the organization resulting in lack of coordination and trust among supply chain members. The changes may effect the information and may lead to demand amplification in the supply chain. The bullwhip effect is the uncertainty caused from distorted information flowing up and down the supply chain. This has its affect on almost all the industries, poses a risk to firms that experience large variations in demand. And also these firms which are dependent on suppliers, distributors and retailers.

A bullwhip effect may arises because of-

Increase in the lead time of the project due to increase in variability of demand

Increase in the stock to stock to accommodate the increasing demand arising out of complicated demands models and forecasting techniques

Reduced service levels in the organization

Inefficient allocation of resources

Increased transportation cast

How to prevent it?

Bullwhip effect may be avoided by one or more of the following measures- Avoid multiple demand forecasting

Breading the single orders into number of batches of orders

Stabilize the prices avoid the risk involved in overstocking by maintaining a proper stock

Reduce the variability and uncertainty in paint of sale (POS) and shaving information

Reduce the lead time in the stages of the project

Always keep analyzing the past figures and track current and future levels of requirements

Enhance the operational efficient and outsourcing logistics to capable and efficient agency

On the bullwhip effect it is the theory from MBA book MB0028 of Sikkim Manipal University. It is one of the questions of MBA assignments. Bullwhip effect prevention theory has been introduced in the assignment also.

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Special Effect Contacts – Be the Center of Attention at Costume Parties

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Special Effect Contacts – Be the Center of Attention at Costume
Parties

Theatrical contact lenses are favorites for costume
parties. And for a good reason – nothing can make your costume
seem more real than a pare of bright inhuman eyes. However, with
so many special effect contacts available it is important to
know how to select good ones.

All special effect contacts are soft contact lenses. This means
that, with proper care and cleaning, you will hardly notice
there is anything in your eyes. Most people can wear costume
contact lenses without any problems.

What types of special effect contact lenses are on offer?

Theatrical lenses come in hundreds of exciting designs. You can
get cat’s eye contacts, red or black spirals, wolf eyes,
bloodshot eyes, vampire, white-out, black-out or even an
American flag design. The most popular and trustworthy brands of
special effect contact lenses are Crazy Lenses from Cooper
Vision and Wild Eyes from Ciba Vision.

See photos of people wearing costume special effect contact lenses

As all color contact lenses, costume lenses can be produced
digitally (printed by a computer) or hand-painted. As you would
expect, the price of hand-painted contacts is much higher than
mass produced, digital ones – usually upwards from 0.
Hand-painted lenses are the most beautiful, and every detail is
very clear.

However, don’t assume that mass produced lenses are no good.
They make an excellent addition to your costume for a Halloween
party, or just for a fun night out at a club. On the other hand,
if you plan to shoot a home movie, where your face will be seen
large and clear, a pair of more expensive, hand-painted
theatrical lenses would be better.

You can also order custom special effect lenses – an artist will
paint any design you like. Naturally, though, custom theatrical
lenses are the most expensive.

What effect would you like – just to change the color portion of
your eye to something exotic, or to cover the whites of your
eyes as well and make them look completely inhuman?

Most theatrical contact lenses only cover your iris, this way
you can get an effect of cat eyes, wolf eyes, red-hot eyes or
spirals. But there’s another type of costume contact called
scleral lenses. As the name suggests, this lens covers your
entire sclera (the visible portion of your eye, including the
white). Scleral lenses are more flexible in design, because they
are not restricted by the circular shape of the lens and whites
around. The effects that you have seen in Predator or Dune are
achieved with scleral lenses.

However, scleral costume lenses are harder to manufacture, so
they are always more expensive than the circular ones – but the
effect is well worth it.

Can I wear costume contacts if I need vision correction?

The most popular brands, like Wild Eyes and Crazy lenses, come
with or without visual correction. Crazy lenses also come in the
most common size – diameter 14.2 and base curve 8.6. This means
that they would suit the majority of people.

Most other costume contacts can be only be ordered in plano.
However some companies, allow you to specify your prescription,
especially when the lenses are custom made.

Make your costume really stand out with a pair of scary
theatrical lenses. You will have great fun and be the center of
everybody’s attention

Hoodia Side Effects Exposed – the One Side Effect They Don’t Tell You About

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Hoodia Side Effects Exposed – the One Side Effect They Don’t Tell You About

Hoodia is fantastic for losing weight right? In the thousands of years that it has been used there have been no reported negative side effects right?

Right!

So then why am I claiming to be exposing the untold side effect? It is true that there have never been any negative side effects recorded from using Hoodia Gordonii, however, there is an effect that can be a negative effect if the user of the product doesn’t take it into consideration.

This is the effect of possible dehydration. As well as being an appetite suppressant, Hoodia also stops the feeling of thirst and so the risk being that if you aren’t feeling thirsty you may not drink and then can very easily become dehydrated.

It is common knowledge that the body needs six to eight glasses of water every day and many people are great at ensuring they get the required water intake. Some people aren’t though and do rely on their feeling of thirst to drink.

Unfortunately this is one effect that Hoodia has on the body, to stop you feeling thirsty. I guess this effect isn’t talked about much as when people try to promote a product they don’t want to point out the negative points.

My opinion though is that this point is very important. Hoodia is a very effective way of losing weight and if that can help you get on the road to a good, healthy lifestyle then that is great. In no way am I suggesting not to use Hoodia as it is a great product, it is completely natural and completely safe – as long as you stay hydrated.

This is my only concern and I believe it should be known. If you can be disciplined with yourself and make sure that you drink the required amount of water each day, then I say try the Hoodia, it is great. Please though make sure that you do drink enough water and don’t become hydrated.

How to Magnify Your Results by Using the Law of Cause & Effect to Your Advantage!

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How to Magnify Your Results by Using the Law of Cause & Effect to Your Advantage!

The law of cause and effect basically states that for every action, there needs to be an equal and opposite reaction. Sometimes the reaction isn’t the opposite, it’s an amplified version of the original action, whether the original action is positive or negative.

An example of cause and effect could be where two people are in an argument, and one reacts to the other with more aggression, and this escalates to the point of fighting and even striking at each other. This type of behavior is cause and effect in action, but in a negative or destructive circumstance.

This could have easily been the opposite, where the aggressor was responded with love or neutral and pressure diffusing response. This could cause the aggressor to then calm down and see there is really no threat to them, so they don’t need to act angrily any longer.

The above is otherwise known as “karma” and every action we make, is either in alignment with the law of cause and effect or out of alignment with it.

If we decide to live our lives in a way that we do right, be kind and spread love to others then we’ll essentially receive it back. However if on the other hand we do wrong by others, it will come back to us either in the physical manifestation or via the “karmic debt” of the spirit.

There is no way to cheat the law of cause and effect, think of it as an invisible eye that records and takes notes on all your actions, thoughts and feelings and repays you accordingly.

So how do we deepen this principal so that the many outcomes in our life are positive rather than what we’re not after?

The answer is simple, yet difficult to implement, but we should strive to live by this law none the less.

To have what you want in life you need to become it!

Bet you weren’t expecting that answer were you? And I’m not saying that if you want more money you need to magically morph into the form, shape and smell of money.

But rather, you need to look at what your goal means to you, and then look at someone who has what you want. They may or may not be role model people, but none the less they have achieved the goal you’re after.

If they are nice people, you might decide to hang around them and learn the lessons of their success and then strive to implement their qualities into your life, but at the same time “please” don’t lose your own personality or good qualities.

It’s more than likely that if these people (even unknowingly, understand the law of cause and effect, yet they could call it something entirely different) they’ll want to help you, because they were once helped themselves and know it’s their karmic duty to repay that debt.

And if you cannot mix with the person that has the goal and success that you’re after, because they aren’t a nice style of person. I would suggest, under stealth, try and study that persons qualities, you’re going to need to be very objective and take your ego out of play to do this, becuase it will be telling you “don’t worry this ain’t worth it” but believe me it is. There’s nothing like studying success to succeed yourself.

The beautiful thing is, as you look and study the person and trying to distill the essence of their success, you might just end up helping them far more than you can imagine. Now this will work in your favour as far as the law of cause and effect goes, as it knows no good or bad, it’s based purely on energy and repays the same energy in kind.

So if per chance you can interact with the person your studying and somehow impact them in a positive way, it could help change their outlook on life for themselves and that will in turn alter their balance (hopefully for the better). As you may notice as you study some highly successful people, who have succeeded “at any expense” are often very unbalanced in other areas of their lives, it might not be apparent to you, but you can bet your bottom dollar they have some form of imbalance and that’s our opportunity to put the law of cause and effect into play.

If we shine our positive light on these people, they will be affected and so will we, it works beautifully all round.

When you look upon shining your positive love, light and peace on everyone and forgiving everyone for everything, you’ll indeed be leveraging the amazing powers of cause and effect.

I urge you to try it and then see what the outcome is, and please share your experiences with me, I’d love to hear from you.

Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: the Bradley Effect and the 2008 Election

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Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: the Bradley Effect and the 2008 Election

Will Americans vote for a black man for President?  This is a real and important question as I write this, and a question that may last even after the election.  Because after the election, we will either be discussing how Barack Obama was able to win and rise above the rhetoric of race or we will be looking at ourselves and asking why we couldn’t do that sufficiently to elect a well-educated, well-spoken man and not override the 30% estimate of white people that the polls say will not vote for an African American for President of the United States.

New politics provide impetus to review old questions.  The candidacy of Barak Obama, an African American, takes center stage on the issue of whether voters disguise their true intentions when they answer questions posed by pollsters about the effect of race on their choice of political candidates.  The term “Bradley effect” is used to describe behavior where white respondents state that race will not affect their vote and where the outcome of the election demonstrates that the candidate of choice receives far lesser votes than predicted.  This dichotomy between the polling and final results is said to reflect the fact that white voters lie about whether or not they will vote for an African American because they don’t want to appear socially inappropriate.  This “Bradley effect” relates to the topic of race but can apply to other qualities as well.

Every year we honor the memory of Martin Luther King.  It was his dream that the sons of former slaveholders and the sons of former slaves should one day be educated, work, and live together amicably and that the “Negro” would have the same opportunity to succeed in society as any other race.  The potential Presidency of Barak Obama appears to reflect some realization of that dream.  But it also brings up the factor of race on election results.

Many people don’t know how the term “Bradley effect” came about, so for purposes of this article, here’s some background.   In 1982 Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley was projected to win the governor’s race in California based upon polling prior to the election.  Instead his white opponent George Deukmejian won.  Seven years later Douglas Wilder, an African American, narrowly won the governorship of Virginia after being projected to win the office handily.  The term “Bradley effect” was used to describe these phenomena.

Recent election results in New Hampshire during the 2008 primaries present a different view, and perhaps a different outcome that shows progress in King’s realization of the dream.  Obama was projected to receive 37% of the vote in the Democratic primary against his rivals, and indeed, although he came in second to Hillary Clinton, he received the projected percentage of vote.  Thus the Bradley effect may no longer be operable in certain states, or under certain conditions, or with certain candidates.  But will that happen nationally.

It has been 40 years since segregation was examined and rejected as national policy.  The legacy of Martin Luther King remains something that all people can identify with, regardless of race.  His message in Washington there in 1963 gave a hope for true brotherhood and the potential of what the national might be able to do.  Obama is part of the realization of that hope, while at the same time his candidacy provokes us to examine our stereotypes and prejudices.  The possibility of turning back the Bradley effect as a historical relic as opposed to a definitive election response makes the “don’t ask, don’t tell” a phrase that will no longer fit any situation because every vote and every person will be shown to participate equally in our culture and fairness will be the banner for diversity and change for the better.

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The Placebo Effect Examined And Studied

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The Placebo Effect Examined And Studied

The placebo effect is a mechanism where someone is taking a medicine that contains really nothing. They think the medicine that they are taking helps them to get rid of their ailment. The person automatically becomes better even though the medicine contained no real substance.

Many critics point out that homeopathy works because of the placebo effect. Many homeopathic medicines contain no active substance so any benefits realized with homeopathy must be due to a placebo effect. So much does the placebo effect actually help is brought into question?

Some research studies have shown that inactive substances made with sugar or water can help patients approximately 1/3 of the time. Patients psychologically believe that this type of medicial treatment is helping them. These are small research studies and they are certainly not conclusive.

The placebo effect can also be difficult to measure due to the fact that many people can cure their illness just on their own. The body’s own immune system helps to fight diesease and taking the placebo pills really would not speed up that process. However, the placebo pill may make the person feel better since they are inclined in thinking the medicine given has helped them.

Another interesting question is how do dogs, cats and babies respond to a placebo? These groups are not aware that they are taking medicine so the placebo effect does not really exist within these groups. However, the placebo effect may exist with the person giving the medication. The person giving the medication may feel an improvement in the condition within these groups because they had provided a remedy. How much a dog, cat or baby would get better on their own is not know if they had not taken a placebo.

The effects of placebo in allopathic or western medicine has not been studied extensively. A large percentage of allopathic medicine has never been properly research and tested. Most people are not sure how western medicine works. The exact way aspirin cures headaches is unknown today. However, many people take aspirin even though they have no idea how it works.

Homeopathic trials comparing homeopathy versus allopathic medicine usually have come out quite favorable to homeopathy. Most trials generally show that the homeopathic medicine works as well as the allopathic medicine. Examples of this would be a trial of 146 people that showed homeopathic nasal spray treated hayfever as well as the allopathic spray.

Homeopathic trials with placebos are much more of a mix bag of trials. Some of the research studies come out quite positive but others have not show too much difference than the placebo. Certainly many of these trials did not follow procedures as homeopaths would practice. It would interesting to see how some of the untested allopathic medicine compare to a placebo.

A placebo effect may exist in all forms of medicine just not homeopathy. How much a placebo effect can help a patient is unknown? Research does suggest that placebo can be help patients cure their ailments but this is far from conclusive.

What are the Side Effect of Steroids?

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What are the Side Effect of Steroids?

The side effects from steroids can be very serious and even fatal. But from the information we gathered in the past few years, it seems to me the side effects are not as serious as the media makes them out to be. Because of the media over exaggerating the side effects, this has turned many people way from steroids. There will only be short descriptions for the side effects now, and in the future we will add more to the side effects when we have time.

Water Retention:

This is most common from using steroids. It is a “puffiness” or swelling in the neck and facial areas. It is rather notable mainly if you know the person is on steroids. For example, we know someone that took steroids but we did not know it at the time. After we found out, if we looked his face we would wonder how we couldn’t notice he was on roids before. It can be mild swelling or very serious, obvious swelling.

Acne:

Everyone knows about acne, and is one of the side effects we worry about the most for us. It is also a very common side effect, it can give acne to someone who has never had acne, and it can make acne worse for others. It can also appear in new places for a person, such as, the back and neck. There have been several users that have not received acne on the other hand.

Gynecomastia:

It may not sound familiar but most people have heard about it. It is the formation of breasts, or abnormally large glands. The first signs are lumps under the nipples, then will gradually grow to fatty tissue and increase in size.

Aggression:

Aggression, also know as “roid rages”. Surprisingly, several athletes feel this is a positive effect. They often find they lift more, and are more intense during workouts. On the negative side, users find themselves fighting with family, friends, and co-workers with an uptight behaviour.

Hypertension:

High blood pressure is also a chance when taking steroids. Most athletes would not know if they had high blood pressure so it is suggested to get tests regularly. High blood pressure can lead to many more serious diseases.

Cardiovascular Disease:

Studies have shown that steroid use is a risk factor for heart disease. This is because steroids affect the cholesterol levels. Over a period of time the cholesterol builds up and clogs the arteries.

Palpitations:

Heart palpitations have been reported by a number of athletes on steroids. These may indicate an excited or elevated level of the central nervous system.

Impotence:

Impotence occurs when a user goes on and off steroids. When steroids are first used sexual interest increases because of the heightened frequency and duration of the erections. But eventually the opposite happens and no erections can be produced.

Jaundice:

A serious liver disease, which is found by an enlarged painful liver, yellowing of the eyes and skin, and flu like symptoms. This happens when athletes use high dosages of steroids.

Here are some more possible side effects from:

Irritation of the stomach lining. Steroids can increase the production of stomach acid and lower the production of protective stomach mucus. This can irritate the lining of the stomach and may cause or aggravate a stomach ulcer. To reduce this side effect the tablets should be taken with meals or milk. Tell your doctor if you have indigestion, stomach pains or abdominal discomfort.

The levels of sugar in your blood may change temporarily. This may happen if you have high-dose or long-term treatment. While you are having your steroid therapy your blood sugar levels will be checked regularly by blood tests. You may be asked to test your urine for sugar. You will be shown how to do this. Tell your doctor if you get very thirsty or if you are passing more urine

than usual.

Fluid retention due to changed salt and water balance. You may notice that your ankles and/or fingers swell. Some people have a bloated feeling in the abdomen. This is usually only a problem with long-term treatment.

Increased appetite. You may notice that you feel hungrier than usual while taking steroids, and this can make you want to eat more than usual. If you are concerned about weight gain speak to your doctor or contact Cancer BACUPs information service.

Increased chance of infection and delayed healing of injuries. This happens mainly with high-dose or long-term treatment. Tell your doctor if you notice signs of infection (inflammation, redness, soreness or a temperature) or if cuts take longer than usual to heal. It is important to maintain good personal hygiene to prevent infection.

Menstrual changes. Women may find that their periods become irregular or stop.

Behavioural changes. You may notice mood swings, difficulty in sleeping and perhaps anxiety or irritability. These happen mainly with high-dose or long-term treatment and will stop when the steroid therapy ends. Tell your doctor about any behavioural changes which are worrying you. Difficulty in sleeping may be reduced by taking the steroids in the early part of the day, but discuss this with your doctor first.

Less common side effects

Eye changes. With long-term use of steroids, cataracts or glaucoma may develop. There is also an increased risk of eye infections. Tell your doctor if you notice any eye problems.

Cushings syndrome. This is usually caused only by long-term use of steroids.

It can cause acne, puffiness of the face, dark marks on the skin and facial hair in women. Cushings syndrome can be partially reduced by taking the steroids early in the morning, by taking them on alternate days instead of every day, or by reducing the dose, but discuss this with your doctor first.

Muscle wasting. With very long-term use of steroids, wasting of leg muscles may occur. This can cause weakness. When the steroids are stopped some people experience muscle cramps for a short time.

Osteoporosis. With very long-term use of steroids, calcium may be lost from the bones. This can result in pain (especially in the lower back), an increased susceptibility to fractures and loss of height.

Other side effects include: enlarged prostate, premature hair loss, sterility, shortness, and head and stomach aches.

How to Create a Sound Effect Library: Step One, Recording Sound Effects

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How to Create a Sound Effect Library: Step One, Recording Sound Effects

In order to record sound effects for a personal or professional sound effect library one needs two things: sound itself and an object with which to record sound.  The former should not be a problem finding as sound permeates existence.  The later is easily available in a variety of formats and forms, though a basic handheld digital unit with a T shaped stereo microphone is the simplest and most efficient.  Personally I’ve tried all sorts of pricey gear and mics throughout my sonic adventures only to discover that a solid 0 to 0 handheld digital recorder no larger than an old-school cassette tape box suffices to create sounds good enough for placement in any film, tv, and media project.  In addition, these units run on battery power and the recorded files can generally be dragged onto your desktop via USB.

Be aware, however, that any device you use must record up to at least a 48k sample rate.  Always record at the highest bit and sample rate possible because video uses audio with a 48k sample rate, not 44.1k.  Any 44.1k samples you have will have to be upconverted to be used in a video production and this process always runs the risk of audio damage.   Because of these potential problems with lower quality files, 48k sound effects are generally valued more by video editors and thus command a higher sale price should you choose to sell your sounds online.

There are two basic types of sound effects that you will be recording:  “hits” and  “ambiences.”   Hits are single short sonic events such as a slap, gun-shot, or dog bark.  Ambiences are longer background elements such as ocean waves, restaurant environments, or playground noises.  In creating a library it is most valuable to have many of both types as they are both used in sound design.  You will find that ambiences are the easiest to obtain as you merely have to go to a new location such as a supermarket or post office and just stand there and record.  Hits need a little more forethought and preparation such as collecting the items you’d like to record or stalking the neighbor’s dog for that perfect dog bark.

The basics of recording a sound effect is literally as simple as hitting the record button.  However, there are several tips to keep in mind in order to get the best recordings possible.  First, make sure that you record as “hot” as possible, meaning with the loudest signal that does not clip or overload the microphone.  If you notice a red LED light blinking when recording it means that your incoming signal is too hot and you will want to pull back your mic a bit from the source.  You want the loudest signal without distortion.  Related to this, it would also be wise to purchase a 10dB pad that fits between your mic and digital recorder will enable you to record sounds with high decibel levels, such as jet engines or weapons.  The pad lowers the incoming signal by 10dB and can be found online for .

Second, try to keep background noises at a minimum.  However, don’t be too obsessive over a “pure” recording because these background sounds can often afford surprising results such as an unexpected car honk, bird call or human noise.  Also, much of the background noise can be filtered out when editing your recordings to create the sound effect product.  The point here is to keep unwanted noise to a minimum but not so much that you might lose the opportunity for some unique recordings and slow yourself down being overly strict about the “perfect” recording environment.

Third, wind will ruin any recording so protect the mic with a windscreen or simply keep your recorder out of the wind by using physical barriers such as trees, walls, or even your jacket.  Sometimes wind noise can be cut out during editing with a high pass filter and cutting frequencies below 200-500 khz but for the most part wind will destroy your recording efforts. Finally, your efforts can also be compromised if you have inadvertently recorded music in the background, such as the music played in a restaurant.  This music is copyrighted and if it appears in your ambience recordings you will be violating copyright law and such recordings are essentially unusable.

These tips are simple and meant to point an aspiring sound effect artist in the right direction toward the creation of a sound effect library for use or for sale online.  Future articles will discuss the process of editing, categorizing, and marketing these raw recordings.    

Lake Effect Snow

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Lake Effect Snow

Lake effect snow can cause large local variations in snow depth with 50 cm of snow accumulate over the course of a few days near the shore and a few miles inland from the lake shore there may be no snowfall at all. Lake effect snow does occur in regions away from the great lakes (for example along Lake Baikal in Russia) but it is far more pronounced and and destructive to ground and air transportation around the great lakes.

Lake effect snow occurs when a mass of freezing air moves down from the Arctic over a body of warmer water, creating instability in the atmosphere above the lakes. As a consequence, clouds build and develop over the lakes and, as they move downwind, develop into snow showers and squalls.

The water temperature of the Great Lakes lags behind the atmosphere in cooling through early winter, as water holds its heat far more readily than land. The heating from below results in instability in the air during cold outbreaks. This instability mixes warm, moist air near the surface of the lakes into the lowest 1 to 1.5 km of atmosphere. Rising air rapidly reaches saturation, and the result is shallow cumuliform clouds, frequently aligned in bands parallel to the low-level wind. By January, ice covers most of the lakes\’ surface area, cutting off or reducing the heat supply.

The distribution of lake effect snowfall in the Great Lakes area depends upon several factors: the position and direction of weather systems, the lake water temperatures and its variations, and the strength and direction of the winds. Topographic differences on the lee of the Great Lakes also affect the intensity and distribution of snowfall. On the eastern and southern shores of the Great Lakes, lake effect snowfall contributes between 30% and 50% of the total winter snowfall .

Winds from the Arctic generally blow from the west or northwest, causing lake effect snow to fall on the east or southeast sides of the Great Lakes. Whether or not an area gets a large fall of snow from lake effect snow is dependent on the direction of the winds, the duration they blow from a particular direction, and the size of the temperature differential between the lakes and the air above.

Cold air holds very little moisture and the low level of the atmosphere is quite unstable. Therefore clouds can form very quickly, condensation occurs and snow falls.

In late 1977 a storm hit the southeast of Lake Huron around London, Ontario. In just three days from December 7th to 9th 100cm (39 inches) of lake effect snow fell on the region. This snowfall was made worse by the 60mph winds causing huge drifts.

However the largest snowfall recorded that was attributed to lake effect occurred in January 1966. In a five day period from 27th to 31st, 259cm (102 inches) of snow fell in Oswego, New York. Half of that total fell on the 31st.

Cause and Effect Diagrams (fishbone Diagrams)

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Cause and Effect Diagrams (fishbone Diagrams)

Cause-and-Effect Diagrams

(Fishbone Diagrams)

It is difficult if not impossible to solve complicated problems without considering many factors and the cause-and-effect relationships between those factors. Defining and displaying those relationships helps. The first such cause-and-effect diagram was used by Kaoru Ishikawa in 1943 to explain to a group of engineers at the Kawasaki Steel Works how various work factors could be sorted and related. In recognition of this, these diagrams sometimes are called Ishikawa diagrams. They are also called fishbone diagrams, because they look something like fish skeletons.

What can it do for you?

Quality problems are typically not simple. They often involve the complex interaction of several causes. A cause-and-effect diagram will help you:

• Define and display the major causes, sub-causes and root causes that influence a process or a characteristic.

• Provide a focus for discussion and consensus.

• Visualize the possible relationships between causes which may be creating problems or defects.

Cause-and-effect diagrams are particularly useful in the measure and improve phases of Lean Six Sigma methodology.

How do you do it?

1. Decide which quality characteristic, outcome or effect you want to examine. You might consider Pareto analysis to help you focus on the most important issue.

2. Write your chosen effect on the right side of a paper, board or flipchart and draw a box around it. If you think of this as a fishbone diagram, this is the fish’s head.

3. Draw a straight line to the left, the fish’s backbone.

4. For each primary cause or category of causes, draw a diagonal line slanting from left to the centerline. Alternate these ribs on the top and bottom of the backbone. Label the end of each rib and draw a box around the label.

5. Draw a horizontal line intersecting the appropriate diagonal line and label it to describe each secondary cause that influences a primary cause. Alternate these medium sized bones to the left and right of each rib.

6. In a similar way, draw and label diagonal lines for third level or root causes, small bones, intersecting the secondary cause lines, medium sized bones.

7. Examine the diagram. If certain causes seem to have a significant effect on the characteristic you are examining, mark them in a special way.

Variation 1: Cause Enumeration

Sometime it may be very difficult to determine the primary causes to be included in your diagram. If that is the case, after you have determined the characteristic or effect you are examining, follow these steps:

• Use brainstorming to create a list of all the possible causes. The list will contain a mixture of primary, secondary and tertiary (or big bone, middle sized bone and small bone) causes.

• Sort the list by grouping causes that are related.

• Identify or name each major grouping and make your cause-and-effect diagram.

• Machine, Manpower, Material, Measurement, Method and Environment are frequently used major causes that can apply to many processes.

The advantage of the cause enumeration technique is that you stand a much better chance that all causes will be listed, especially hidden ones, and your diagram will be a complete and useful picture. The disadvantage is that it may be difficult to relate all the causes clearly to the result, making the diagram hard to draw.

Variation 2: Process Classification

Sometimes it is more helpful to look at causes in the sequence in which they occur instead of considering overreaching logical categories. With this approach, the center line or backbone follows the sequence of the process.

• Instead of primary causes as the ribs, show the major process steps from left to right.

• Construct your cause-and-effect diagram as before.

The advantage of this technique is that, since it follows the sequence of the process, it will be easy for everyone to understand. The disadvantages are that similar causes will appear again and again, and causes due to a combination of factors will be difficult to show.

Hints for Making Good Diagrams

1. Get input from many people involved in the process. Not only will this make for a more accurate diagram, everyone taking part will gain new knowledge.

2. Make one cause-and-effect diagram for each Critical-To-Quality (CTQ) characteristic you are considering. Trying to include all CTQs on one diagram will make it too large and complicated to be of much use as a problem solving tool.

3. Avoid generalities. Express each cause as concretely as possible.

4. Since you will use your diagram to direct the examination of specific cause-and-effect relationships with data, the characteristic you are considering and all the causal factors should be measurable. If they are not, try to make them measurable or find substitutes.

5. The objective of the cause-and-effect diagram is action. Be sure your causes are broken down to the level at which they can be acted on.

Now what?

• Use your diagram to develop a common understanding of the factors potentially influencing or causing a quality problem.

• Use your diagram as a road map for collecting data to verify the causal relationship of various factors to the characteristic.

• Continue to annotate and modify your diagram as you verify relationships and learn more.

Using a cause-and-effect diagram this way will help you to see which factors in your process need to be checked, modified or eliminated.

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